Debates, Ukraine, and Georgia

Due to some unexpected luck, I was able to watch the first debate via YouTube at the Internet-equipped apartment of another volunteer. Generally, I thought it was the most substantive debate of any election in which I’ve voted. Both men are clearly capable of serving as president, but offer fundamentally different choices.

Obviously, the question on Russia and the comments about Georgia and Ukraine were of great personal interest. Both candidates seem to believe essentially the same thing. Namely, that Ukraine should be allowed to become a member of NATO, despite Russia’s objections. It’s hard to disagree with that point.

McCain was mostly right on about the invasion being a signal to Ukraine, in my view, although I think the likelihood of any military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is far less likely for a number of reasons I won’t go into (political, economic, historic, etc.).

Regarding Georgia, I thought McCain sounded like some manic, anti-communist congressman in the 1950s. The strongman comment about looking into Putin’s eyes and seeing “three letters, a ‘K,’ a ‘G,’ and a ‘B’,” is like some strange Cold War leftover. But, unfortunately, it seems a lot of people raised during the Cold War, of all parties, are incapable of recalibrating their understanding of Russia’s new role in the world (not to mention their anti-Soviet rhetoric). Russia is still a country that should be dealt with in a direct, straightforward manner. That hasn’t changed. However, this is no longer an ideological conflict. Economically, Russia is very much integrated into the world, especially with regard to energy. This is the source of its power, and it requires a fundamentally different approach.

Then there was McCain’s comment about visiting Tbilisi, “where I have spent significant amount of time with a great young president, Misha Saakashvili.” This comment was interesting to me because of its obvious fawning over Saakashivili, as well as its relationship to McCain’s recognition that, “It was very clear, the Russian intentions towards Georgia. They were just waiting to seize the opportunity.” As far as I can tell, everyone agrees. Everyone knew that Putin was waiting for an excuse to assert control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and most people I talk to here (as well as the Ukrainian media) seem to think Saakashvili blundered big time by falling for an obvious Russian provocation. I don’t think anyone expected a full on invasion, and clearly the Russians have to right to assert control over Georgian territory. But Saakashvili acted rashly, tried to go it alone, called Russia’s bluff, and lost big time. (Not to mention this “great young president”’s very surprising democratic backsliding recently.) My point: the US needs a to return to a much more realist view of the world. McCain’s praise of Saakashvili, not to mention his “League of Democracies,” betray a more George W. Bush worldview than a George H.W. Bush one. And we all know how well that’s worked.

I thought Obama’s points about having to have foresight about the situation and the notion of Russian “peacekeepers” in Georgia being ridiculous were right on. It’s obviously a situation that has been unstable since the internecine conflicts in Georgia after the collapse of the USSR. The situation should have been addressed collectively. An ideal time would have been after Georgia was rewarded with a NATO membership action plan. Now Abkhazia and South Ossetia are lost for good.